What Would the Bots Do?

The world is obsessed with automation, autonomisation and the idea that all the tough jobs will soon be run by computers. Now that may well come to pass, but will that solve all the problems? Or will we merely create new ones? For instance, will crewless ships save world trade?

Back in 2017, an urban myth developed, one which claimed Facebook had to shut down two chatbots programmers had created as they had started to communicate in their “own language”.

In fact, the researchers chose not to let the bots continue developing a private language, instead of wanting them to stick to plain English. Given that the whole point of the research was to improve AI-to-human communication, then Robo-slang isn’t really going to cut it.

Alas, as the internet does, the programme took on a more and more sinister vibe as more and more outlets reported the story and the social media Chinese whispers made the story appear to be frightened programmers rush to shut down crazed computers. Alas, the truth is less exciting — but nonetheless important.

What can be seen from this is the very real issue of computers thinking and acting very differently to humans. Which brings us very nicely to the question of shipping and how it is likely to evolve in the post-Anthropocene period?

FACTS NOT SCIENCE FICTION

Back to those Facebook chatbots again for a moment, the fact that they developed their own “language” is not a surprise at all. The programmers gave the AI systems a goal to achieve, which required them to communicate with each other. They were rewarded for achieving their goal, not for using good English.

This meant that after thousands of conversations with each other, they started using words in ways that people just wouldn’t. Their use of simple language was not important or particularly surprising but does show that the interactions between people and AI may be rather different than we perhaps expect or anticipate. Listen to shipbrokers talking to each other, and tell me they don’t have their own language!

Anyway, why is a maritime informatics junkie like myself interested you might ask? Well, for me this is very much about the culture of shipping, of how global trade has evolved over centuries, with its own laws, flaws and occasional logic.

The fact that we are eagerly working towards a collective transportation future without humans in the loop means that we need to understand what questions and answers the machines are likely to be asking of each other. We need to understand that in asking the AI system to get a consignment of Playstation 5s from China to a shop in Brighton, it may have a very different idea of how to do it than you or I.

TOUGH REALITY CHECK

The current congestion being experienced off ports globally, whether China, the US or UK, is a very real manifestation of the problems which can be created when any single part of the supply chain becomes gummed up or fails.

What was, until just a few months ago, a well-oiled machine. One which got what we wanted and needed from where it was made to where it was consumed. Now it seems and feels very different. Now, perhaps prompted a little by the reality check of the Ever Given being stuck across the Suez Canal, we see things very differently.

It used to be thought of as a robust backbone to global trade. The idea that fish could be caught off Scotland and it was cheaper and easier to get them filleted in China and shipped back, gave some kind of surreal glow to the abilities and capabilities.

Today things are different. Now the gloss has worn off, the costs have skyrocketed and ships are stuck at anchor. While the container lines may be raking in the cash now, this is ultimately a zero-sum game, and everyone seems to be losing or will lose eventually.

BACK TO THE BOTS

This brings us back to the bots. When programmers set out their demands, they give goals to be achieved by the bots. So when AI negotiates with AI, then it is about the results. It is about the quickest, straight-line solution which secures the best possible deal for the parties.

Now, things get a little muddied when humans are in that mix. We have terrible tendencies like pride, aggression, and greed to deal with. In the pure world of AI, the best result is the best result. In our world, the best result may allow us to go down to the gym and banter with our mates about how amazing we are. These are sentimental needs that are beyond the ken of the machine. The pyrrhic victories of humans mean little to the machines, they seek advantage not necessarily success at all costs.

So, we find ourselves at a tricky point in history. For the first time since the war, global trade finds itself under existential threat. We used to be able to move what we wanted, when we wanted, we built fragility into the system as if things arriving just in time was a right.

It all worked wonderfully, until the point that it didn’t. So we stand today at a crossroads. What now for global trade? Bringing AI into a deal with people is potentially fraught, but we don’t seem to be ready to fully outsource to the machines. What do we do? Do we stick or twist?

PLOTTING A PATH

What it seems is we are at a point of inflection, where decisions are needed and which intelligence must be applied from people. We need those in power to understand what we are messing with. At the moment there is a concern that the people at the levers of power are more like the lads in Weird Science than they are science-driven.

We need to think, plan, educate, understand and develop the global system of shipping as an intelligent, sensible and credible part of the supply chain once more. The idea that our fleet can be tied up and sat idle seems nonsensical. The idea that it can be used to ship containers full of garbage from west to east seems like not just a physical waste, but a moral affront too.

So, what we should ask, would those chatbots do? How would they negotiate, position and fix the woes of our shaking and shuddering shipping system? Well, the first thing is they would set their goals carefully and clearly. They would understand that the real answers are not found in win v lose, but in a credible draw in which all sides live to fight another day.

Today’s mess is about failings across the chain. Ports with operating hours out of kilter with demands, which when the gates are open pour trucks and trailers onto roads which cannot take them. That’s if they can find the drivers in the first place. All are based on models of pricing which reward a lack of capacity. This is not a system, this is an exercise in blind faith, and it is being worn thin. The bots would be rolling their 8-bit eyes at us because we are cocking this up, and we are doing so on a global and monumental scale. Time to think like a machine, and to get the results we all need.