Three Monkeys of Decarbonisation
Never defend the indefensible, that was the motto on our school wall. Written above the goalkeeper’s locker. Which perhaps explains why I am a rugby man now. Anyway, today that truism still resonates when it comes to the global shipping industry. An industry which I love, but which is in something of a tricky situation when it comes to a zero-carbon future.
It spent a long time saying that the fuel we used was fine. Then when it became increasingly clear that it wasn’t, it spent a few years trying to keep its head down, before then saying that new forms of low sulphur oil were the magic bullet.
Now, as the world has run far and fast from that as an acceptable answer we find ourselves trying to defend all manner of new, weird, and wonderful energy cocktails.
All lumped together under the ribbon of banners of decarbonisation, greening and the 4th Propulsion Revolution. What does it all mean though? Are we truly much closer to the end goal? Do any of our goals even align?
We have the wonderful patchwork quilt of maritime interests, which I have written about before https://captainstu.medium.com/is-shipping-too-complicated-for-mortals-7a42387f0b91 can any of these disparate hopes, dreams and desires actually work together?
It has been suggested recently that shipping is now shaped by politics not economics. I think that is wishful thinking on behalf of people with flags on their lapel badges, but I can perhaps see where they are coming from.
The supposition is that the old holy trinity of Flag, owner and charterer is now under the collective thumb of UN Sustainability Goals, IMO Emissions horse-trading and ESG pressures.
That with so many hoops to jump through to gain acceptance, compliance and access to capital that they now have to kowtow. Maybe some will, but it still seems likely that many will or cannot.
The future may well be one of hope and audacious goals, of electric hydrofoil vessels making jaws agape and wallets open, but there are still some very hard truths to be dealt with…and that is the fact that the maritime industry remains highly dependent on fossil fuels, and still emits 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
So we find ourselves at a critical juncture. One where Greek owners who gathered recently around various fountains, pools, beaches and lidos up and down the roads leading to Posidonia, have collectively and clearly said that until there is clarity there will not be collective concessions.
So we have a dark cloud blocking the sunshine of hope and the zero-carbon future we are all so theoretically committed to. This also places us in a very tricky situation when it comes to the use of maritime informatics.
The benefits of data, analysis and of tools to interrogate and extrapolate require that all parts of the chain are legal, safe and acceptable. They are all meant to be worthy of examination, there can be no dark corners into which hydrocarbons hide.
As we try and move forward though, the academic work on which so much of our newly envisioned value chain rests sees that there are three legs to the solutions stool.
According to a recent paper by Mikael Lind, et al, there has to be alignment in the fuel, shipbuilding and operations chain. These three fundamentals need to be pulling together to unlock the actual secrets to getting where we have to go.
So how close are well? Hmm…let’s not ruin a good story by asking awkward questions. From the fuel perspective, the sticking point is that so much of shipping is based on the future. You forward buy, you commit to charter, always trying to see the message in the tea leaves, the clear signs in the cards. Without some certainty of future costs and supply, then Crystal Balls are more likely to be smashed than looked into.
We have a situation where even if dual fuel ships are built (for LNG/Methanol and fuel oil), then they are running around on conventional bunkers. Like the poor electric car crowd who can’t find charging points and have to get towed by their mate’s pick-up.
So, it is not clear yet that the fuel chain is fully taut and pulling us along together. So what of the shipbuilding? Running the gamut from design, materials, construction, assembly, maintenance, refit and ultimately recycling, there are many opportunities for this to be the value element which drives real change.
After all, did Kevin Costner himself not say, “Build it and they will come!”. He did, and so are we? Well, funny old thing. Unless there is the right mix of future fuels available who on earth would order a very expensive ship to be built? Ships earn by moving things. If they are stuck waiting for some magical zoomzoom juice that isn’t really scaled up for bunkering, then that is not going to fly…well sail, you know what I mean.
Last but very much by no means least, we have to look to the operations chain. According to Lind, the maritime operational value chain covers the steps of ships being operational in their activities of travelling between ports and making port visits. Consequently, steps along the maritime operational value chain are fuelling / provisioning, loading/boarding, voyaging, unloading / disembarking, and refuelling.
With so many aspects to consider it feels like this is the least likely of the triumvirate to be gung-ho, innovative and full of devil-may-care action. However, despite those doubts, there remain aspects of this element of the decarbonisation equation which can bring some potentially important results. That is in the size and speed of ships…visionary operators can see things mere maritime mortals cannot, and this is where we can see the driver of change.
If operators know that their businesses depend on better designs, on access to dual fuels, or new bunkering facilities, then it is to be expected that someone will jump at the chance of supplying them.
The academic view is that “the members of the maritime decarbonization ecosystem, need to align their strategies”. Which is probably fair, but what it also needs is for the one who pays the piper to shout out what tune is needed more loudly.
With a clear message from operators that they will be ordering the ships of the future today, then those who provide the fuels better shape up or ship out. Hopefully, money will do what it has done for time immemorial…and talk, loudly. Benjamin Franklin, we need to hear you scream!
