Applying Real Intelligence to the Artificial Kind
Streamlining and optimising transportation networks is the dream of not just the global shipping industry, but everyone who has to put their hand in their pocket to pay to have things moved. Increasingly as the supply chains get smarter we see people shoved to one side. Does shipping need artificial intelligence (AI), or will success come in collaboration?
Anyone who has ever watched 2001: A Space Odyssey will be slightly twitchy at the idea of computers gaining the upper hand over people. It’s been 50 years since the release of 2001: A Space Odyssey, and I’m still trying to make sense of it. Stanley Kubrick’s science-fiction masterpiece is regularly voted as one of the greatest films ever made, and for our purposes, you just need to know that aboard a colossal spacecraft bound for Jupiter a 5-person crew are held in suspended animation, with the ship’s operations run by a computer named HAL 9000. The main thrust is whether HAL’s artificial intelligence could spell trouble for the people. You can perhaps see where this is going?
Indeed, the sassy computer declares he is, “by any practical definition of the words, foolproof and incapable of error”, which is obviously the prelude to disaster. Anyway, spin forward, the computer melts down as it manages an existential crisis, the astronauts want to shut Hal down and he decides to shut them down instead.
Much tension and drama ensue and the question of having faith in any system or machine which seems to have all the answers is questioned. This seems like a pretty good analogy about the concerns surrounding AI and ships.
WHAT IS OUR SITUATION?
A McKinsey Global AI Survey shows that the adoption of AI continues to increase, and is generating returns. Which sounds exciting. A recent report showed a nearly 25 percent year-over-year increase in the use of AI in standard business processes. The future is coming fast.
For maritime operations, which are pretty well optimised already, the belief is that the big savings will come in “last nautical mile” efficiencies. So the likes of vessel precision operations using various geographical data to exactly make ETAs/ETDs, fine-tuning container routing, and re-routing, fuel-consumption models that offer “Fuel Savings Guarantees.”
Which all sounds very exciting, and money talks after all. The biggest attractions of AI are advanced analytics, automated equipment, an improvement to safety and security, better routing and the power of performance forecasting.
All of these things combined to have powerful algorithms shaping what ships do, and joining together to form the “glue” of maritime informatics which will help businesses to perform and grow.
THE RIGHT COMBINATION
The right combination of human and AI seems to be the answer to ensuring the highest operational benefits and reducing the environmental impact of logistics. That can be a tricky balance though.
By 2025, as many as 60 percent of the logistics companies will adopt AI, a number which is roughly around 12% now. The AI platforms will be focused on transport planning by leveraging the power of machine learning and predictive analytics.
Using analysing, modelling, and predicting various transport flows with very high accuracy it is expected that companies worldwide can expect a 25% reduction in transport costs while increasing their fleet utilisation up to 14% and maintaining high service levels. Assuming nothing runs aground in Suez, of course.
The power and potential for AI are unquestioned, and the industry has been fine-tuning state-of-the-art algorithms to give useful insights by applying data evaluations, predictive analytics, forecasting, and optimisation models. All these steps are supporting one important goal — helping logistics companies make the optimal data-driven decisions ahead of the demand curve and pushing their service quality to the next level.
THERE IS A BUT…
There is a notion that the burgeoning use of AI means that “everybody wins”: with promises of major cost savings, more technology-based jobs, and a cleaner planet. Can it really be so? Can the tech be so good that it only delivers the right answers and solves all problems? Well, yes and no. So what are the barriers and what needs to change?
Poor data — rubbish in, means rubbish out. Which at sea is bad news indeed. Ships making bad decisions could spell very big trouble indeed. So for AI to win over the hearts and minds, it needs to really show the power of not just what it does with data, but how. Tesla cars confusing the sides of blue trucks for the sky mean that there is still some convincing to do.
Lack of “solid information” — there is a lack of reliable information across the entire supply chain. This really does hamper the development of the systems which ironically would provide reliable and solid data. So we are in a bit of a downward spiral at the moment. There needs to be better information, demanding standards and a means to make good on the promises of analytic insights. Data-driven decisions are only as right as their insights, and at the moment we have to work harder as a maritime informatics community to reassure and prove.
You’re Fired — The perennial issue of jobs for people is a major concern. This isn’t just one for sociologists and theorists, people are scared and they need to understand what the future use of AI means. I have heard of cadets worrying whether there will be a maritime career for them — we need to give answers, to find the right roles which harness people, passion and all that humanity brings to shipping — while wrapping it in a nice data package and putting a ribbon around it.
The Challenge of Digitalisation — I have spoken at length about this, and it remains such a big challenge. Get it wrong and all you’ve done is akin to backing up on a USB Stick. Get it right and suddenly the power of exponential growth is yours to harness. Sadly all too many are still getting it wrong.
Strategy is everything — Sometimes the essence of strategic thinking is deciding what not to do, and being stuck in the same decision-making rut is hampering companies. So making the choice to change is key.
AI is here, it is shaping your every day, and shipping has to keep pace with the change around it. Our industry is blessed with centuries of heritage and now we need to build on those glorious foundations.
